Strategy (MSTR) will not be forced to sell its massive Bitcoin holdings even if its stock price continues to slide, according to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan. Responding to growing fears across the crypto market, Hougan said claims that the company would be pushed into selling Bitcoin are “just flat wrong.”
No Pressure to Sell Bitcoin, Even If MSTR Stock Falls
In a Tuesday note, Hougan emphasized that a drop in MSTR’s share price below its net asset value (NAV) does not trigger any obligation to dump Bitcoin. He pointed to chairman Michael Saylor’s long-term conviction in Bitcoin and the company’s stable financial position.
“It would indeed be very bad for the Bitcoin market if MSTR had to sell its $60 billion of Bitcoin in one go — that’s akin to two years of Bitcoin ETF inflows,” Hougan said. “But with no debt due until 2027 and enough cash to cover interest payments for the foreseeable future, I just don’t see it happening.”
CEO’s “Last Resort” Comment Sparked Market Concerns
Fears escalated after Strategy CEO Phong Le said last week that the company could sell a portion of its Bitcoin as a “last resort” if its market value dropped below the value of its holdings. That scenario, combined with limited financing options, could justify selling some Bitcoin to protect the firm’s “Bitcoin yield per share.”
The concerns come amid a prolonged crypto market slump and the possibility of Strategy being removed from the MSCI global index.
Bitcoin Still Trading Above Strategy’s Cost Basis
Hougan argues that Strategy remains in a solid position. Bitcoin’s current price near $92,000 sits 24% above the company’s average acquisition price of $74,436, reducing pressure to make defensive moves.
He also notes that the firm’s obligations are manageable:
• Annual interest payments total about $800 million.
• Strategy holds $1.4 billion in cash — enough to cover payments for around 18 months.
• No debt matures until 2027, giving the company ample breathing room.
Because of that, Hougan believes a forced Bitcoin sale is highly unlikely, even if MSTR stock continues to decline.
Market Turbulence and the MSCI Threat
MSTR shares have dropped 24.69% over the past 30 days, closing last Friday at $186.01. Some of this decline may stem from MSCI’s October announcement that it may exclude companies with more than 50% crypto assets on their balance sheets from its indices.
Such a removal would push index-tracking funds to sell the stock — adding more downside pressure.
Index Changes Usually Have Limited Long-Term Impact
Hougan, however, says the market often overestimates the long-term effect of index additions or deletions.
“When MSTR was added to the Nasdaq-100 Index last December, funds tracking the index had to buy $2.1 billion of the stock. Its price barely moved,” he said. “These events are usually priced in well ahead of time.”
Strategy Remains Positioned to Weather Crypto Market Volatility
Despite recent declines in MSTR stock and broader uncertainty in the Bitcoin market, Hougan maintains that Strategy’s balance sheet, long-term Bitcoin strategy, and cash reserves give it significant room to maneuver.
For now, the takeaway is clear: a forced Bitcoin sale is not on the horizon — and fears of a liquidation event are overblown.
