Crypto markets are heading into 2026 with a very different setup than previous bull and bear cycles. According to Kraken, the next phase for digital assets will be shaped less by speculative momentum and more by market structure, institutional flows, and macroeconomic pressure. Bitcoin remains central to risk sentiment, but how liquidity enters the market — and how prices react to it — has fundamentally changed.
A bitcoin cycle driven by structure, not speculation
In a new outlook, Kraken Global Economist Thomas Perfumo said bitcoin is still the primary barometer for crypto risk appetite, yet the mechanics behind demand and price discovery look very different heading into 2026. The rise of U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs and digital asset treasury companies has introduced new liquidity channels that absorb capital without triggering the explosive price reactions seen in earlier cycles.
In 2025 alone, these institutional vehicles generated nearly $44 billion in net spot demand for bitcoin. Despite that scale, price performance fell short of expectations. Perfumo explained that long-term holders supplied much of the available bitcoin, creating a market capable of absorbing massive inflows without the reflexive upside that defined past bull runs. The result is a structurally tighter market where capital flows matter, but timing and macro conditions matter even more.
Macro pressure remains the dominant force
Kraken’s outlook emphasizes that macroeconomic conditions continue to set the tone for crypto markets. Modest global growth expectations, persistent inflation, and a slower pace of monetary easing have constrained risk assets across the board, including bitcoin. Perfumo warned that extended periods of calm can hide deferred volatility, particularly if liquidity conditions tighten again.
Rather than a clean boom-and-bust cycle, 2026 may resemble a prolonged stress test where bitcoin responds more to shifts in interest rates, policy expectations, and global liquidity than to narrative-driven hype.
Stablecoins, regulation, and the plumbing of crypto
Beyond price action, Kraken highlighted stablecoins and regulation as key structural pillars for the next phase of the crypto market. Stablecoin liquidity has reached all-time highs, reinforcing their role as the backbone of onchain trading and settlement.
At the same time, U.S. regulatory momentum is accelerating. Proposed frameworks such as the GENIUS Act and broader market structure reforms could reshape where crypto liquidity forms and which jurisdictions become hubs for innovation. According to Perfumo, clearer rules may reduce friction for institutions while fundamentally changing how capital moves through crypto markets.
Institutional momentum faces new constraints
Kraken also noted that institutional momentum slowed in 2025 compared with the surge seen in 2024. Spot bitcoin ETF inflows decelerated, and digital asset treasury firms now face tighter conditions as equity issuance premiums compress. Without a clear risk-on environment, these vehicles may struggle to generate the same upward impulse for bitcoin that investors have come to expect.
This dynamic reinforces the idea that future rallies may be slower, more structural, and more dependent on macro alignment rather than pure capital inflows.
Cathie Wood: bitcoin’s role as a diversifier remains intact
A similar macro-first perspective appears in Cathie Wood’s 2026 outlook from ARK Invest. Wood highlighted a notable divergence in 2025, when gold surged 65% while bitcoin declined 6%. She described this shift as evidence that macro pressure temporarily redirected capital toward traditional hedges, even as bitcoin’s long-term supply remains structurally constrained.
Wood also stressed bitcoin’s low correlation with major asset classes, arguing that it continues to function as a powerful portfolio diversifier. She noted that bitcoin’s correlation with gold is lower than the correlation between the S&P 500 and bonds, reinforcing its appeal for asset allocators seeking higher returns per unit of risk in volatile macro environments.
Price levels and near-term market tension
From a trading perspective, attention remains focused on whether bitcoin can decisively break higher or enters another consolidation phase. Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, described bitcoin as undervalued relative to U.S. equities after months of divergence. He sees the market either retesting the $90,000 level or pushing toward $100,000, which he identified as the next major resistance zone.
Beyond bitcoin: tokenization and onchain finance
Looking past bitcoin, Kraken pointed to tokenization and DeFi token economics as longer-term drivers of liquidity formation in 2026. Analysts at Standard Chartered have echoed this view, projecting that Ethereum could outperform as institutions increasingly adopt tokenized real-world assets.
Perfumo noted that tokenized financial assets have expanded rapidly over the past year. He added that tokenizing widely held assets, including large-cap U.S. equities, could unlock new sources of global demand while increasing onchain settlement activity and capital efficiency.
A new kind of crypto cycle
Across perspectives from Kraken, ARK Invest, and market participants, a common theme emerges. The crypto market of 2026 may look less like a familiar speculative cycle and more like a macro-driven system where structure matters as much as price. Liquidity pathways, institutional behavior, regulation, and global economic conditions are becoming just as important as narratives and momentum.
For bitcoin and the broader crypto market, the next phase is not about hype — it’s about plumbing, patience, and positioning in a world where structure defines opportunity.
