Predicting a Nation’s Future Through Apps: The Rise of Kalshi and Polymarket
On the morning of the 2024 United States presidential election, two apps emerged at the forefront of the Apple App Store’s finance category, drawing attention for more than just their popularity. Kalshi and Polymarket, both platforms centered around the concept of prediction markets, experienced meteoric rises in the rankings. Kalshi, favored by U.S. users, claimed the top spot in the store’s finance category, while Polymarket, leveraging its widespread reach outside the country, placed a close fourth. These apps, while fundamentally different in their user bases, share a common thread: they enable citizens to bet on pivotal election outcomes.
Prediction markets, when broken down, offer a fascinating glimpse into how human behavior and betting interests play out concerning significant political events. On this fateful day, excitement surged as people across the globe sought to place bets on who would emerge victorious in what had already been a highly charged election. Both Kalshi and Polymarket saw increased engagement, propelled by this thirst to predict the next president. SensorTower, a widely recognized app analysis platform, noted that Kalshi had not only topped the finance category but impressively climbed to the third position overall in the free apps section. This marked a significant achievement for the platform, solidifying its newfound place in the app store hierarchy.
Polymarket, while not as high in the overall app ranking, still made impressive strides, notably reaching fourth place in the finance category. However, the difference between the two apps went beyond ranking. Polymarket is structurally similar to Kalshi but is not available to U.S. nationals due to regulatory constraints. This means while both platforms offered election-related markets and allowed users to wager on key questions—such as the presidential winner or swing state outcomes—only Kalshi catered directly to U.S.-based participants.
As of November 5, Kalshi’s most prominent market focused on a head-to-head race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, a market that had ballooned to a staggering $247 million. This exemplifies the keen interest voters and speculators alike had in making their predictions using real-world capital. The concept behind prediction markets is driven by the belief that when people have money on the line, they are more likely to provide an unbiased view, creating a distinct kind of crowd-sourced insight distinct from traditional election polls. In some respects, these platforms offer a parallel narrative to the polling data that typically drives election coverage, one potentially more reflective of actual voter sentiment—incentivized by financial outcomes.
Meanwhile, Polymarket has enjoyed tremendous popularity despite not being available to U.S. users. Its market for the 2024 presidential winner stands at $3.26 billion in total betting volume, dwarfing Kalshi’s offerings and making it the largest market currently live on the platform. Since its debut in 2020, Polymarket, which operates on the Ethereum blockchain, has attracted an impressive $5.15 billion in cumulative trading volume. This enormous figure underscores not only the app’s growing stature but also the overall intrigue surrounding prediction markets for geo-political events beyond the U.S. borders.
The rise of these platforms has not been devoid of regulatory hurdles. Earlier in October, a significant legal victory opened the doors for Kalshi to expand its offerings. A federal court ruling granted the platform the ability to list election betting contracts, overcoming a lengthy period of scrutiny by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The agency had sought to regulate these “event contracts” under stricter guidelines. The court’s decision enabled Kalshi to break new ground and offer markets that hadn’t been available to U.S. users previously, perhaps contributing to the app’s rapid ascent in the App Store rankings.
Interestingly, Kalshi has incorporated modern blockchain conveniences into its operation, allowing users to seamlessly deposit funds. Through a partnership with Zero Hash, a leading infrastructure provider in the digital asset space, Kalshi permits deposits of USDC stablecoins. This integration highlights the merging of traditional finance practices with cryptocurrency—another factor that could be contributing to Kalshi’s appeal, especially among a tech-savvy demographic interested in the convergence of finance and future predictions.
The gripping nature of the 2024 U.S. presidential election and the universal allure of political spectacle have brought platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to the forefront. What these apps demonstrate is the evolving way in which individuals, both in the U.S. and abroad, engage with politics—no longer just as passive observers, but as active participants wagering on potential outcomes. Through these platforms, election seasons become a testing ground for instincts, a place where digital predictions mesh with real-world consequences, and where the bets often feel as high as the stakes themselves.
