At the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Elon Musk shared a bold prediction: by 2040, robots will outnumber humans. Speaking to an audience eager to glimpse the future of AI, Musk said, “I think by 2040 probably there are more humanoid robots than there are people.” He portrayed a world saturated with artificial intelligence, with robots becoming essential in households and industries alike.
Musk’s Vision: A Society Saturated with Robots
With the world population estimated at 8.2 billion, Musk’s prediction may seem far-fetched. However, it reflects his deep-rooted fascination with AI and robotics. Musk often speaks of an era where humanoid robots redefine our economy and society, suggesting a future where robots do much of the labor, leaving humanity to ponder profound existential questions. At the 2024 All-In Summit, he stated, “With no limit on the number of humanoid robots…there’s no actual limit to the economy in it.”
Expert Doubts: Is Musk’s Prediction Realistic?
Not everyone shares Musk’s enthusiasm. AI researcher Gary Marcus is one of the skeptics, questioning both the feasibility and timeline of Musk’s vision. Marcus, a prominent critic of AI hype, remarked, “Elon has a track record of overoptimistic predictions about AI, and this one is no different.” He points out that, just as many people don’t own cars due to financial or practical reasons, widespread ownership of humanoid robots faces similar barriers. “We aren’t going to see six humanoid robots for every car anytime soon,” Marcus said, underscoring the steep financial and technological challenges involved.
The Challenge of Making Affordable Humanoid Robots
Musk is not merely predicting a robot-filled world; he is also working to make it happen. Tesla’s robotics projects, including the recently showcased Optimus robot, aim to bring affordable robots to the masses, with Musk envisioning a long-term price between $20,000 and $30,000. Yet Marcus remains doubtful, noting that even lower-priced consumer robots like the Roomba, which sells for a few hundred dollars, are far simpler and have sold only around 50 million units globally. “Imagining selling 200 times as many humanoid robots in the near term is fantasy,” Marcus argues, emphasizing the still-unsolved technical and economic hurdles of producing safe, useful humanoid robots.
A Future Yet to be Decided
While Musk’s vision captivates many, experts like Marcus caution against unchecked optimism. Technological breakthroughs do not follow straight paths, and the challenges of affordability, reliability, and public readiness remain significant. Whether or not humanoid robots will dominate society by 2040, one thing is clear: the future of AI will continue to spark debate and reflection.
