Bitcoin is once again at the center of market anxiety after falling below its 365-day moving average, a key long-term indicator used by traders to assess the direction of the broader crypto market. With Bitcoin slipping under the $99,000 level on Tuesday, analysts are divided on whether this signals a deeper bear market or just another correction within an ongoing bull cycle.
Bitcoin slips under key trend indicator
The drop below the 365-day moving average was highlighted by CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, who noted that this same signal served as the final confirmation of the 2022 bear market. According to Moreno, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the moving average quickly to avoid prolonged downward pressure.
Coinbase data shows Bitcoin briefly dipped to around $98,900, marking a multimonth low before climbing back above $101,000. Despite the slight recovery, the move has sparked renewed debate among traders closely watching Bitcoin’s price action, market momentum, and macroeconomic influences.
Why the 365-day moving average matters
The 365-day moving average smooths out Bitcoin’s price performance over the past year, helping traders determine long-term trend direction. When Bitcoin trades below this line, it is often interpreted as a bearish shift. Market observers frequently use this metric to confirm trend reversals during volatile cycles.
This is not Bitcoin’s first dip below the 365-day moving average in 2025. Crypto analyst Decode pointed out that BTC briefly broke below the same threshold in April, suggesting recurring periods of volatility even in a strong bull market.
Correction or start of a bear market?
Some analysts argue that Tuesday’s plunge could technically mark the beginning of a bear market. Bitrue analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima noted that Bitcoin has now fallen more than 20% from its all-time highs above $126,000 reached in early October. According to his assessment, the move fulfills the typical definition of a technical bear market.
However, Adziima believes this pullback is more likely a routine correction within the broader 2025 bull cycle. He referenced past data showing that Bitcoin historically rebounds by around 40% within 60 days after experiencing a 20% drawdown during bull runs.
Is $100,000 the line in the sand?
Algoz Technology’s head of investments and trading, Tom Cohen, sees the $100,000 price level as the key threshold that would determine whether Bitcoin truly shifts into bearish territory. Cohen expects that unless Bitcoin decisively breaks below this level, the market could still be preparing for a strong upside move.
He also noted that a year-end rally remains possible, especially with traders eyeing macroeconomic developments, including the upcoming US interest rate decision and potential policy actions from President Trump.
Market remains on edge
With Bitcoin hovering near the $100,000 psychological support level, the cryptocurrency market remains tense. Traders are watching whether BTC can recover its 365-day moving average and regain bullish momentum or whether this breakdown will deepen into a broader market reversal.
For now, Bitcoin’s status remains uncertain, leaving investors to weigh technical signals, historical trends, and shifting macro conditions as the year approaches its final stretch.
