Bitcoin started October with a fresh all-time high, but AI-based forecasts suggest a major price breakout may not happen this month.
Bitcoin Hits Record High but Faces Resistance
Bitcoin (BTC) kicked off the first full week of “Uptober” trading around $124,000, consolidating near its weekend all-time high. Data from TradingView showed that after briefly filling a futures “gap,” BTC remains steady, with traders watching for a possible retest near $118,000 before making another push higher.
Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin left behind a small CME gap and warned that a bigger one remains near $110,000, which might come into play if prices retrace further.
Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted that Bitcoin has reached a crucial resistance at $123,000, and if institutional buying resumes, BTC could reclaim this zone and push higher. Meanwhile, market analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes consolidation is likely before Bitcoin makes its next leg up toward $150,000.
Traders Expect a 4% Dip Before Next Move
Despite hitting new highs, analysts expect a short-term correction. Traders are eyeing a 4% dip toward $118,000 as Bitcoin retests its 50-period exponential moving average (EMA).
Trader CrypNuevo predicted a near-term pullback before another upward move, maintaining a bullish stance as long as BTC holds above this key support. Similarly, Rekt Capital emphasized that Bitcoin must establish firm support near $124,000 before entering price discovery.
A fall below $117,000–$118,000 could signal weakness, but most analysts agree that the overall market structure remains bullish as long as Bitcoin forms higher highs and higher lows.
AI Predicts Range-Bound October for Bitcoin
While investors are excited for “Uptober,” artificial intelligence paints a less explosive picture. Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $108,000 and $123,000, suggesting a period of re-accumulation.
Using its NBeats Ensemble AI forecasting tool, which analyzes nearly 400 on-chain metrics, CryptoQuant concluded that the odds of a major BTC breakout in October are low. The model expects Bitcoin to continue fluctuating within its current range, primarily in the upper half, as it builds momentum for the next major move.
Traders should monitor $108,000 support and $123,000 resistance, as a decisive breakout from this range could define Bitcoin’s mid-term trend heading into November.
Fed Outlook and US Shutdown Add Uncertainty
Macroeconomic developments also loom large. The ongoing US government shutdown has paused key economic data releases, increasing market uncertainty. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman are expected to speak this week, offering potential clues about future interest rate policy.
Despite concerns over labor market data, the S&P 500 continues to trade near record highs, maintaining over 100 consecutive days above its 50-day moving average. Analysts warn that a stronger US dollar index (DXY) rebound could pose short-term risks to Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Market Sentiment Remains Greedy but Calm
Crypto market sentiment has surged alongside Bitcoin’s price. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reached 74/100 on Sunday, nearing the “extreme greed” zone before cooling to 71/100. Just days earlier, it was as low as 26/100, showing how quickly optimism returned.
Despite the strong rally, traders remain cautious, remembering that no bull run moves in a straight line. Bitcoin may continue consolidating, but the long-term bullish narrative remains intact as investors prepare for the next breakout.
