In anticipation of the upcoming United States presidential election on November 5, many within the crypto world are divided on what the outcome could mean for the volatile digital asset market. Among the many voices speaking to this issue, some argue that a Donald Trump victory may stimulate a significant rally, while others urge caution, noting that other underlying factors could influence market behavior.
According to Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, a Trump win might inject a “dopamine hit” into the market, energizing it with a momentary boost. However, Hundal is quick to caution against uncontrollable optimism. “Markets would be more volatile in the days surrounding the election,” he advises, pointing to the unpredictability that typically accompanies election periods. This sentiment is echoed across the sector, with many experts urging traders to consider the turbulent landscape ahead.
Uncertain Terrain: What Awaits the Market Post-Election?
As the election nears, one prevailing thought is the element of unpredictability. Nick Forster, Derive’s founder, says it’s best to “approach with caution,” underscoring that the crypto market has already factored in considerable volatility in its current landscape. For Forster, while traders could potentially see a rise, they shouldn’t disregard the risks: “The risks are equally significant,” he warns, highlighting the importance of calculating every move with precision.
Forster emphasizes the data, pointing to Derive’s options trading statistics, which suggest traders are preparing for sharp price moves around election time. The increased purchasing of options calls signals some traders are positioning themselves for a bullish market scenario. They anticipate a “buy the rumor” effect, expecting an upswing based on mere speculation about Trump’s win. Yet, Forster highlights the possibility of a reversal if actual outcomes differ from expectations—a probable “sell the news” moment where investors rush to take profits, potentially erasing prior gains.
Bitcoin Momentum and Election Insight
As of the latest figures on October 23, Bitcoin had climbed by 7.62%, pushing its price to $72,432, and nearing just 2% shy of its all-time high set in March. Hundred, like many other experts, remains skeptical that this election will necessarily serve as the decisive catalyst for Bitcoin to break the much-anticipated $100,000 mark. Drawing comparisons, Hundal echoes the views of Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings, who ardently believes that Bitcoin is on a trajectory to six-figure valuations regardless of whether Trump secures victory or his opponent takes control. The reasoning is that Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals remain robust: “Barring some kind of exogenous shock, we’re looking at six-figure Bitcoin prices before year-end. Irrespective of who is in control of the White House.”
This broader perspective reflects a shift in thinking among some investors, who see Bitcoin less as a politically driven asset and more as a macroeconomic tool whose growth is influenced by factors like inflation, global money supply, and investor sentiment rather than individual geopolitical events.
The Appeal of a Diversified Strategy
The uncertainty surrounding the election—and its potential impact on the market—has led analysis figures, like Forster, to recommend a diversified trading strategy. Traders who have the flexibility to incorporate hedging in their plans, Forster notes, may fare better than those going all in on outright long positions. The high market sensitivity to both domestic and global developments makes it risky to simply bank on election outcomes alone pushing the market either way.
Hundal supports this view but adds a layer of optimism. While acknowledging that timing trades could be tricky unless you’re a professional investor trying to exploit short-term arbitrage opportunities, he sees value in staying the course long term. “I’m not sure timing your trades matters too much in this environment unless you’re a sophisticated investor,” Hundal remarks, implying that the crypto landscape, at its core, remains on an upward trajectory. He reiterates that while the market may experience turbulence around the election, the fundamentals continue to point toward growth. The tendency for the market to “whipsaw” around major events like elections creates both risks and opportunities, but Hundal remains bullish out to 2025, a longer-term view shared by several analysts who see past the immediate noise.
A Broader Perspective on the Outcome
Concluding this line of thinking is the insight from David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, who offers a third-party evaluation devoid of partisan biases. According to Lawant’s report from October 21, Bitcoin is poised to perform well regardless of the election outcome.This consensus underscores a recurrent theme seen in the analyses—while the election results may sway markets in the short term, the ongoing belief in Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory suggests that its long-term performance is shaped by broader, macroeconomic factors rather than just political developments.
Ultimately, the crypto market is notoriously complex and heavily influenced by a variety of external factors. Savvy traders aware of these forces may position themselves accordingly—whether a Trump victory sends a surge of excitement into the market or other world events temper expectations amidst the swirling uncertainty of postelection trading. One thing remains clear: volatility, in the tumultuous world of digital assets, is inevitable—what matters most is how investors manage, adapt, and capitalize on it.
