Bitcoin has bounced back after two difficult weeks, and new market data from K33 Research suggests the worst part of the current Bitcoin bear market may be close to ending.
According to K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde, long-term Bitcoin holders are showing strong conviction. A record share of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held by long-term holders, while old coins are being reactivated at unusually low levels. This signals that experienced investors are becoming less willing to sell, even after recent market weakness.
Bitcoin Rebounds After Sharp Weekly Losses
Bitcoin recently recovered around 6% over the past week after two consecutive weeks of double-digit declines. The price has moved back toward the $65,000 region, giving the crypto market some relief after a period of heavy selling pressure.
The rebound comes as traders watch whether Bitcoin can stabilize above key support levels. While sentiment remains cautious, K33 believes several on-chain indicators are starting to resemble the final stage of previous Bitcoin bear markets.
One of the strongest signals is the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders, often seen as some of the most patient participants in the market.
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Reach New All-Time High
K33’s latest market report highlights that 79% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held by long-term holders. That marks a new all-time high and suggests that a growing share of BTC is moving into the hands of investors who are less likely to sell during short-term volatility.
This is important because Bitcoin bear market bottoms have historically formed when long-term holders control a rising share of the supply. As weaker hands sell during downturns, patient investors gradually absorb the available BTC.
Lunde said this trend reflects continued accumulation and a gradual shift toward a more constructive market environment.
In simple terms, more Bitcoin is being held by investors who are choosing to wait instead of sell. That can reduce available supply on the market and ease selling pressure over time.
Old Bitcoin Supply Is Barely Moving
Another key part of K33’s analysis is the low reactivation of older Bitcoin supply.
During the 2024–2025 market cycle, a large number of older coins were reactivated and likely sold as Bitcoin reached record highs. This added significant selling pressure to the market.
The situation in 2026 looks very different.
By June 6, only 218,421 BTC aged two years or more had been reactivated. According to Lunde, the only year with lower reactivation by that date was 2012, when just 70,600 BTC aged two years or more had moved.
The difference is especially clear when compared with 2024. By June 6, 2024, around 1.18 million BTC aged two years or more had been reactivated.
This sharp decline suggests long-term holders are no longer rushing to take profits or exit the market. For Bitcoin price analysis, that is a potentially bullish sign because it points to weaker on-chain selling pressure.
Why This Could Signal the End of the Bitcoin Bear Market
K33 argues that the current market structure fits a pattern seen in previous Bitcoin bear markets. As prices fall and sentiment weakens, more of the circulating supply tends to move into the hands of long-term holders.
This process often happens near major market bottoms.
The logic is straightforward: short-term traders and nervous investors sell during drawdowns, while long-term holders accumulate or hold their positions. Over time, the available liquid supply shrinks, and the market becomes better positioned for recovery.
Lunde previously noted that 50% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was underwater, meaning it was last moved at prices higher than the current BTC price. Historically, this level has appeared near major Bitcoin bear market bottoms, although it has sometimes come before one final move lower.
This means K33’s outlook is cautiously optimistic, not aggressively bullish. The data suggests the bear market may be maturing, but it does not guarantee an immediate Bitcoin price rally.
ETF Outflows Ease as Trading Activity Falls
K33 also pointed to signs of stabilization in broader market conditions.
Recent Bitcoin ETF outflows, which had been a major source of weakness, have started to ease. At the same time, trading activity has fallen back toward yearly lows.
Low trading volume can often appear during late-stage bear markets. It reflects reduced speculation, lower market excitement, and a more exhausted selling environment.
For crypto investors, this kind of setup can be important. When panic selling slows and long-term holders continue to accumulate, the market can begin forming a stronger base.
However, the recovery remains fragile. Bitcoin is still sensitive to macroeconomic signals, ETF flows, and institutional demand.
Some Analysts Remain Cautious on Bitcoin
Not everyone agrees that Bitcoin is ready for a lasting reversal.
Analysts from firms including Wintermute, Glassnode, and Bitfinex have warned that ETF flows, stablecoin growth, and institutional demand still do not fully confirm a new bull market. Some bearish forecasts have even suggested Bitcoin could fall as low as $30,000 if market conditions weaken again.
This creates a divided outlook for the crypto market.
On one side, K33 sees signs that Bitcoin’s bear market may be nearing its end. On the other side, more cautious analysts argue that stronger demand is still needed before calling a full market recovery.
For now, Bitcoin appears to be in a critical transition phase.
FOMC Meeting Takes Center Stage
The next major catalyst for Bitcoin could come from the Federal Reserve.
Markets are now focused on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, but investors will closely watch the Fed’s language for clues about future policy.
Lunde noted that Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 is near 0.6. This means BTC remains closely tied to broader risk assets, especially during periods of macro uncertainty.
If the Fed signals a more hawkish stance or suggests rate hikes remain possible later this year, Bitcoin could face renewed pressure. But if the message is more balanced, risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may find support.
Recent macro events have also shaped market liquidity, including the record-breaking SpaceX IPO and the U.S.-Iran interim peace agreement. These developments have added another layer of complexity to the current crypto market outlook.
Bitcoin Outlook: Cautious Optimism Returns
Bitcoin’s latest rebound does not confirm the start of a new bull market, but K33’s data suggests the bear market may be losing strength.
The record share of Bitcoin held by long-term holders, the low reactivation of old BTC supply, easing ETF outflows, and reduced trading activity all point to a market where selling pressure is fading.
Still, risks remain. Institutional demand needs to improve, ETF flows must stabilize further, and the Federal Reserve’s next policy signals could strongly influence Bitcoin’s short-term price direction.
For now, the main takeaway is clear: long-term Bitcoin holders are still holding firm. If history repeats, that could be one of the strongest signs that the market is moving closer to a bottom.
