Bitcoin is flirting with record highs as it approaches the end of June, and traders are bracing for a volatile finish to Q2 2025. With BTC price movements heating up, manipulation concerns rising, and macroeconomic uncertainty in play, here are the top five things to know in Bitcoin this week.
BTC Price Nears All-Time Monthly Close
Bitcoin is on track to post its highest monthly close ever—if it finishes June above $104,630. At the time of writing, BTC/USD is hovering near $107,000, giving bulls a narrow buffer for a potential dip.
A strong June finish would also mark an impressive 30% quarterly gain for Bitcoin, despite the rollercoaster of volatility driven by headlines and order book shifts. CoinGlass data shows June is likely to close in the green, which could provide a launchpad for a stronger Q3 rally.
Volatility Rises as Trading Bots Trigger Price Swings
Bitcoin price volatility spiked over the weekend, with BTC briefly climbing above $109,000—on track for its highest-ever weekly close. However, the rally faded, and BTC settled near $108,400 on Bitstamp.
According to trader Skew, the sudden move was driven by algorithmic trading activity designed to trigger liquidations. One bot reportedly pushed BTC high enough to wipe out a $12 million short position before prices reversed.
“These games are being played again,” Skew warned. Fellow trader BitBull noted similar bot-driven price action occurred two weeks earlier, followed by a sharp dump.
Order book manipulation by large-volume traders continues to spark false breakouts and add uncertainty to BTC’s short-term movements.
Liquidity Levels Could Decide BTC’s Next Move
With Bitcoin stuck between key liquidity zones, analysts are closely watching exchange order books for clues on where price action might head next.
Material Indicators reports that sell-side liquidity is concentrated in the $108,000 to $110,000 zone, while buy orders stretch down to $98,000. This spread creates conditions for sharp price swings over the next 24–48 hours.
Co-founder Keith Alan expects one more liquidity sweep to the downside, even if BTC manages a record candle close. Bulls may need to brace for turbulence before reclaiming momentum.
Fed, Trump, and the September Rate Cut Bets
This week is light on U.S. macroeconomic events due to the July 4th holiday, but all eyes remain on the Federal Reserve after Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony.
While Powell emphasized patience on interest rate cuts, political pressure from former President Donald Trump is intensifying. Trump has publicly criticized Powell and accused the Fed of acting too slowly, even hinting at replacing him.
Traders are betting on a possible rate cut in September. The CME FedWatch Tool currently assigns a 75% chance of a 25bps cut, though July remains unlikely.
Nonfarm payrolls data, set for release Thursday, could influence those odds further—and in turn, impact risk assets like Bitcoin.
Long-Term Holders Spark Demand Deficit Concerns
Despite bullish price action, onchain metrics suggest Bitcoin may be entering a vulnerable phase. CryptoQuant’s latest research warns of a “critical demand deficit” as long-term holders (LTHs) and miners offload coins faster than buyers can absorb.
Their Apparent Demand metric, which subtracts LTH and miner supply from new demand, has turned negative—a signal last seen when BTC rebounded from $75,000 in April.
“This increases the supply for sale and signals profit-taking by experienced investors,” wrote analyst Crazzyblockk. “It’s a bearish development and a red flag for market strength.”
Without stronger demand, any price rally could face heavy resistance from available supply.
Is Time Running Out for Bitcoin’s Bull Market?
According to analyst Rekt Capital, the Bitcoin bull market could reach its peak as early as September or October 2025, based on historical halving cycles.
Earlier this year, BTC reached new all-time highs ahead of April’s halving, accelerating the cycle by 260 days. But that acceleration has since disappeared, suggesting a potential slowdown—or recalibration—of Bitcoin’s bull phase.
“If BTC is slowing down, it may re-enter price discovery soon with parabolic moves,” Rekt Capital noted. “Bitcoin tends to overperform and underperform during different phases, so the breakout could compress the cycle again.”
If history repeats, the next few months may offer limited time before BTC reaches its cycle top.
