Bitcoin’s Bullish Signals Rise Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds and Technical Indicators
As Bitcoin lingers near the $85,000 mark, the market is abuzz with signs of a pending breakout, supported not just by price action, but by a historically reliable technical indicator—the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This indicator, often overlooked by casual observers, has quietly been painting a picture of potential upward momentum, suggesting that Bitcoin may be on the cusp of another significant rally. However, in the wider context of macroeconomic uncertainty and cooling investor sentiment, the outlook remains a matter of careful interpretation.
Over the last month, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has displayed a somewhat paradoxical behavior. While BTC/USD has traced a pattern of lower lows, the daily RSI has diverged upward, carving out higher lows and hinting at what analysts call a bullish divergence. This pattern—where momentum begins strengthening even as the asset’s price drops—is often a precursor to trend reversals in technical analysis. Significantly, RSI has recently surged above the critical midpoint of 50, tested that level from above, and rebounded higher, setting multi-month highs in the process.
Prominent trader and analyst Rekt Capital weighed in on the development via X, where he confirmed that Bitcoin had successfully tested a key support level labeled as “red” on his chart. Speaking to the importance of the evolving trend, he shared, “Bitcoin has successfully retested red as support & the Daily RSI Higher Low continues to maintain itself as well. Growing signs of a maturing Bullish Divergence here, with price just below the key Price Downtrend (blue).” The post, accompanied by a technical chart, painted a clear vision of bullish potential tempered by resistance overhead. According to Rekt Capital’s interpretation, the RSI behavior also hints at a potential long-term price floor near the $70,000 level—a zone that may offer structural support in future trading scenarios.
Echoing this cautiously optimistic outlook, fellow analyst Kevin Svenson highlighted the activity on the weekly RSI. In a post that garnered attention across the crypto community, he explained the significance of what could be forming on that longer-term frame. “Once confirmed, weekly RSI breakout signals have proven to be among the most reliable macro breakout indicators,” Svenson posted to his followers, emphasizing that the signal needed just 6 more days to reach full confirmation. His analysis underlined that this wasn’t a routine fluctuation—rather, it resembled the early stages of momentum shifts observed before previous bull runs.
But the bullish sentiment doesn’t end with RSI alone. As savvy Bitcoin watchers note, the cryptocurrency is also attempting to break past a stubborn downward-sloping trendline in place since the all-time highs established in January. This trendline has acted as a ceiling suppressing price recoveries, and its potential breach would add weight to the case for a new leg up in the market cycle. It’s a moment many investors have been waiting for—a clean technical breakout to match the emerging strength indicated by momentum metrics.
Macroeconomic Pressures Temper Optimism
While technical indicators shine with promise, they must coexist with the harsher realities of macroeconomic conditions. The broader landscape has become increasingly complex, shaped by a turbulent U.S. economy, rising interest rates, and the reverberations of an ongoing trade war—all of which feed into global risk sentiment and capital flows. These external forces have dimmed the prospects of substantial short-term inflows into Bitcoin, which continues to move in close coupling with equities—unlike gold, which has recently broken into new all-time highs.
Network economist Timothy Peterson offered a sobering perspective in his latest April forecast. Comparing the price action to the median historical performance of Bitcoin throughout the year, he revealed that this year is clearly underdelivering. A chart accompanying the analysis drew a sharp visual dichotomy: the blue line representing the median price path has now been left behind, with this month categorically falling below median expectations. Peterson noted, “Half the days are above the blue line and half are below it. This April is obviously a ‘below’ month.” Emphasizing the challenges in reversing this course, he added, “That is almost certainly not going to change, given the level of interest rates and other risk factors at work in the market and economy.”
Despite April’s lukewarm performance, some see foundational shifts progressing slowly in the background—quiet tremors that could align with Bitcoin’s longer-term bullish thesis. Analysts point, for instance, to the record high in global M2 money supply, a broad measure of liquidity, as well as a weakened U.S. dollar index (DXY) as potential supports for Bitcoin. These factors tend to enhance asset values over the medium to long term as they lower real interest rates and expand risk appetite. While their influence may not be immediate, they are nonetheless essential threads in the evolving macro-narrative that surrounds Bitcoin.
In summary, Bitcoin stands at a crossroads where promising internal indicators—the likes of RSI breakouts and trendline tests—are gaining traction against the backdrop of more volatile external conditions. While the RSI’s rise evokes memories of past bull run preludes, macroeconomic realities suggest that the road ahead may still pose considerable friction. For now, investors are left watching closely, aware that amidst conflicting signals, it is often the subtle details that precede the most significant shifts.
