The Battle for Bitcoin: Tariffs, Resistance Lines, and the Tides of Global Markets
As the world moves into mid-April, the cryptocurrency space is once again caught in a swirling confluence of geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic shifts, and technical patterns. Right at the center of this is Bitcoin (BTC), trading at $84,629 and standing its ground amid uncertainty sparked by an escalating U.S.-China trade war. This unfolding drama is not just a political standoff—it’s also a dynamic battleground for traders as they navigate choppy waters created by shifting tariffs and volatile financial indicators.
Despite the recent upward momentum—BTC/USD closed last week up 6.7% according to TradingView—the optimistic surge has hit a familiar roadblock: a stubborn downtrend resistance line that has held since early 2024. This level continues to be a psychological and technical ceiling for traders watching for signs of a true breakout.
Bulls Push Against Resistance, Await the Verdict
Zooming out, Bitcoin traders are more cautious than euphoric. While price action recently flirted with a breakout past months-long resistance, confirmation remains elusive. As trader Bitbull pointed out on X, the price was “rejected at key resistance, following the trendline perfectly,” adding that in the case of a downturn, attention would likely shift to the $70K–$72K support zone for a potential rebound.
Echoing this sentiment, analyst Rekt Capital noted that although “Bitcoin has Daily Closed above the Downtrend,” it’s not yet a done deal. “Retest needs to be successful and it is in progress,” he emphasized, reminding traders that past attempts have failed during the retest phase, as marked by several red circles in his charts.
AK47, another popular voice on X, balanced hope with skepticism. “$BTC might push to $88K—but don’t get too comfy,” he warned, suggesting the move could just as well be a strategic liquidity grab before dipping to $81K to form a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern. If that technical setup holds, surging toward $95K–$100K might not be out of reach.
Trade War Uncertainty Rattles Markets
The backdrop to all this technical tension is a cloud of macroeconomic uncertainty. With a slow week in U.S. economic data, attention is instead fixed on the ever-evolving trade war narrative. Most notably, developments with China and tariffs are proving to be trigger points for sudden moves in risk assets and crypto.
This past weekend brought a brief sigh of relief after former President Donald Trump paused tariffs on critical tech products, inducing a short-lived surge in BTC, which touched an 11-day high above $86,000. However, the optimism was dampened quickly as it became clear these exemptions were likely temporary.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, “The goal was to bring treasury yields back down before resuming the trade war.” This sentiment reversal caused stock futures to falter and pushed BTC/USD back to $84,000 at the time of writing. Kobeissi observed, “Markets initially thought the move might end the trade war, only to be disappointed the very next day,” underlining how sensitive markets remain to headline risk.
Offering further insight, Mosaic Asset suggested in its April 13 newsletter that it may not be tariffs alone driving policy shifts. “Volatility in currencies and Treasury bonds might have forced a quick pivot on trade and tariff policy,” it noted, characterizing tariff developments as binary and unpredictable influences on the markets—an unsettling proposition for investors seeking stability.
Bitcoin ETFs Take a Hit—But Remain Resilient
One visible consequence of the week’s heightened uncertainty has been seen in US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which experienced their fifth-worst week since launching in early 2024. More than $750 million flowed out of these instruments in just a few days—a considerable sum by any standard.
Yet, financial researcher Timothy Peterson urges perspective. “Last week, US Bitcoin ETFs had their 5th worst week ever… Yet it barely registers as a blip on the chart,” he commented on X, highlighting how the broader ETF pool has grown so robust that such outflows are now less significant in the grander scheme. “That’s how big Bitcoin has become. That’s how sticky these investments are.”
Amid the turbulence, some high-profile investors saw opportunity. Strategy, previously MicroStrategy and led by Michael Saylor, hinted at increasing its Bitcoin holdings. Saylor shared a chart on X along with the comment: “No Tariffs on Orange Dots,” a nod to the firm’s unshaken faith in BTC despite broader market jitters.
Still, Bitcoin’s appeal as a safe-haven hedge in times of volatility is under scrutiny. A Bank of America survey conducted in late March revealed that investors favor gold overwhelmingly (58%) as a volatility hedge, in stark contrast to just 3% choosing Bitcoin and 9% selecting 30-year Treasury bonds. “Throw in the US deficit spending crisis and gold quickly becomes the only global safe haven asset,” Kobeissi added about the results, suggesting Bitcoin still struggles to win mainstream institutional trust in turbulent times.
A Weak Dollar Strengthens Bitcoin’s Hand
While geopolitics and sentiment charts dominate the short-term narrative, the weakening U.S. dollar may be setting the stage for Bitcoin’s long-game resurgence. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which compares the dollar to a basket of global currencies, recently touched its lowest level in three years. At present, it’s once again teetering near those lows, a sign of investor doubts in the greenback’s near-term strength.
Historically, a falling DXY has often preceded rises in Bitcoin, albeit with a delayed response that sometimes spans several months. This inverse relationship is gaining renewed attention thanks to insights from analytics account Bitcoindata21. Over the weekend, the account shared charts tracing movements between DXY, Bitcoin, and the S&P 500, suggesting conditions may be aligning for a longer-term bottom—or even rally—in both equities and crypto.
“I got 99 problems but the DXY ain’t one,” Bitcoindata21 quipped, alluding to the hopeful sentiment that a weakened dollar might translate into stronger tailwinds for risk assets like BTC.
Money Supply Surge: Fuel for the Next Rally?
Beyond charts and headlines lies a macroeconomic metric that often flies under the radar—but which may be brewing a quiet storm for Bitcoin: the global M2 money supply. Analyst Colin Talks Crypto recently highlighted that global M2 has held at all-time highs for three consecutive days, a development he calls a “fantastic sign” that could herald significant capital inflows into risk assets—including crypto—over the coming months.
M2, which tracks the global supply of liquid money, has shown correlations with Bitcoin price trends in the past. According to Colin, movements in global M2 typically lead Bitcoin’s response by about 108 days. “This is a fantastic sign for what it signals will be coming into risk assets in ~108 days,” he wrote, emphasizing that a delayed but meaningful BTC rebound may be in store.
That said, patience remains key. Colin estimates that a true “blast-off” moment won’t occur until late April, noting: “Global M2 (with a 108-day offset) doesn’t show a blast-off for another ~2 1/2 weeks, and actually shows a slow bleed into next week until around April 16th or 17th.” His earlier forecasts suggested a stronger BTC upswing could begin in earnest sometime in May, synced with an anticipated liquidity surge driven by increased M2 supplies.
The Road Ahead
As Bitcoin navigates the complex terrain of technical resistance, geopolitical shocks, ETF volatility, and macroeconomic shifts, one truth remains—even amid turmoil, the market never sleeps. The ongoing U.S. trade war is far from resolved, the dollar continues to wobble, and institutional conviction in BTC still trails behind that for gold. Yet, with rising money supply, declining DXY, and bullish technical setups forming in the wings, Bitcoin may be assembling the conditions for its next major move.
Whether it’s a quick bounce off support or a gradual climb fueled by global liquidity and weakening fiat confidence, the stage is set for an unpredictable—but potentially explosive—season in the world of digital assets.
