Bitcoin could already be two months into a bear market, according to on-chain data analysis from CryptoQuant. The signal comes from a combination of long-term technical indicators and historical market behavior that have traditionally marked bearish phases for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
Speaking on the Milk Road Show, CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno explained that several core indicators turned negative in early November and have not yet recovered.
Bearish Signals Triggered in November
According to Moreno, most of the metrics behind CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index flipped bearish roughly two months ago. The index tracks overall Bitcoin market conditions using a combination of network activity, investor profitability, liquidity levels, and demand trends, with readings ranging from 0 to 100.
One of the most important confirmations, he noted, came from a classic technical signal: Bitcoin falling below its one-year moving average. This indicator, which reflects the average price over the last 12 months, is commonly used to identify long-term trend reversals.
Moreno described this breakdown as the final confirmation that market conditions have shifted, signaling that Bitcoin may already be in a bearish phase.
Bitcoin Price Performance Defies 2026 Growth Expectations
Bitcoin entered 2025 trading near $93,000 and later surged to an all-time high of $126,080 in October. However, it ended the year lower than where it started, according to data from CoinGecko.
As of Friday, Bitcoin is trading near $88,500. If the current trend holds, this outlook challenges popular analyst narratives that expect 2026 to be a strong growth year for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Instead, Moreno suggests the market may still be in the early stages of a longer corrective cycle.
Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Could Be $56,000–$60,000
Based on historical bear markets and Bitcoin’s realized price, Moreno estimates that the eventual bottom could fall between $56,000 and $60,000 sometime in 2026.
The realized price represents the average price at which existing Bitcoin holders acquired their coins. Historically, Bitcoin tends to trade well above this level during bull markets and gravitates back toward it during prolonged downturns.
Moreno explained that this level often acts as a base expectation for where prices stabilize during bear markets, making it a key metric for long-term investors watching for potential bottoms.
A Milder Drawdown Compared to Past Cycles
If Bitcoin were to fall to $56,000 from its all-time high, the drawdown would be roughly 55%. While significant, this would still be notably less severe than previous crypto bear markets, which saw declines of 70% to 80%.
Moreno views this as a potential positive signal, suggesting that Bitcoin’s market structure may be maturing and becoming more resilient over time.
Stronger Market Structure and Institutional Demand
Another key difference this cycle is the absence of major systemic failures. During the 2022 bear market, collapses such as Terra, Celsius, and FTX triggered widespread panic and accelerated losses across the sector.
This time, Moreno notes, there have been no comparable high-profile implosions. Instead, the market is supported by a broader base of participants, including institutional investors and Bitcoin ETFs that tend to buy periodically and hold rather than panic sell.
According to Moreno, demand dynamics have structurally changed. Institutional players now provide steadier inflows, helping reduce extreme volatility and potentially softening the impact of the current bear market.
While uncertainty remains, these factors suggest that although Bitcoin may be in a bearish phase, the long-term foundation of the market appears stronger than in previous cycles.
