Bitcoin continues to trade within a narrow range between $100,000 and $105,000, but analysts say major investors — known as whales — are quietly building positions. This comes as improving macroeconomic conditions offer support to risk assets, though persistent ETF outflows and fragile sentiment keep traders cautious.
Whale Accumulation Surges Despite ETF Outflows
Bitcoin opened Thursday near $101,900, marking the lower end of its recent trading corridor. Despite limited price movement, blockchain data shows intensified whale accumulation.
Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, reported that whales added more than 45,000 BTC this week — roughly $4.6 billion at current prices — making it the second-largest accumulation event of 2025. “This suggests structural positioning is being built beneath subdued flows and weak momentum,” Misir explained.
Blockchain analysis further indicates that much of this buying coincided with large Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges into cold storage, typically a sign of institutional accumulation rather than retail speculation.
Futures Market Resets as Leverage Declines
Across derivatives markets, open interest has fallen sharply, dropping around 34% from its October peak of over $64 billion to below $42 billion as of November 13. CoinGlass data shows total liquidations nearing $583 million, primarily from over-leveraged long positions. As leverage unwinds, analysts note that stronger hands are quietly re-entering the market.
On-chain data from Glassnode points to a market in “quiet equilibrium,” with consolidation in a mild bearish range. The firm highlights “seller exhaustion” near $100,000 and a dense resistance zone between $106,000 and $110,000 that continues to cap upside momentum.
Macro Tailwinds Offer Modest Relief
A series of macroeconomic developments have brought some relief to global markets. The U.S. government officially reopened this week after Congress passed long-delayed spending legislation, ending a 41-day shutdown and unlocking about $40 billion in deferred liquidity.
Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Commerce struck a more cooperative tone, emphasizing “significant room for trade and economic cooperation with the U.S.” These events have lifted global risk sentiment and supported a modest recovery across markets.
Misir described these trends as “improving macro conditions and cautious optimism in risk sentiment,” which could support long-term Bitcoin accumulation.
Consolidation May Continue Before Breakout
Despite improving conditions, analysts caution that persistent outflows from Bitcoin ETFs — about $278 million on Wednesday — and from Ethereum spot ETFs — about $184 million — may continue to weigh on prices. In contrast, Solana spot ETFs saw inflows of over $18 million, signaling selective investor confidence.
Experts at BRN and Glassnode believe Bitcoin’s consolidation phase could persist until institutional inflows stabilize. They note that the market is “structurally cleaner but not yet liquid enough to trend,” suggesting that while the groundwork for a future rally is forming, a sustained breakout may still take time.
Outlook
Bitcoin remains in a delicate balance between bullish whale accumulation and cautious macro optimism. As institutional investors slowly return and liquidity conditions improve, a breakout above $106,000 could mark the start of a new trend — but until then, analysts expect BTC to stay within its current range.
