Bitcoin’s recent price moves suggest its historic four-year halving cycle could still be intact, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. Despite predictions that institutional adoption and ETFs would break the pattern, the data shows Bitcoin’s price action continues to “echo prior patterns.”
Bitcoin Shows Signs of Cooling Off
Glassnode noted that Bitcoin may be further along in its current cycle than many investors believe. Profit-taking among long-term holders — wallets holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days — has reached levels “comparable to past euphoric phases.” This typically signals the late stages of a cycle.
Demand also appears to be weakening. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows of nearly $975 million over the past four trading days, according to Farside Investors. At the same time, capital inflows into Bitcoin are “showing signs of fatigue.”
Since hitting a new all-time high of $124,128 on August 14, Bitcoin has fallen 8.3% to $113,940 at the time of writing, based on CoinMarketCap data.
Speculation Rises as Demand Drops
Glassnode added that slowing demand has pushed traders toward riskier strategies. Open interest across major altcoins briefly surged to a record $60 billion before correcting by $2.5 billion, signaling increased speculative activity.
If Bitcoin continues to follow its traditional cycle, peak prices could arrive as early as October. In previous cycles, such as 2018 and 2022, cycle highs occurred just two to three months beyond the current stage when measured from the cycle low.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also projected in July that if Bitcoin repeats its 2020 pattern, the market could peak in October, roughly 550 days after the April 2024 halving.
Debate Over the Four-Year Cycle
Not everyone agrees that Bitcoin is still locked into its four-year halving rhythm. Some analysts argue that institutional adoption, corporate treasuries, and spot Bitcoin ETFs could reshape the cycle.
On August 10, author and investor Jason Williams highlighted that the top 100 treasury companies now hold nearly 1 million Bitcoin. Data from BitcoinTreasuries.net confirms publicly traded companies hold around $112.17 billion worth of BTC, a figure that could influence market behavior beyond the traditional halving timeline.
Meanwhile, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recently declared that “the Bitcoin cycle is dead,” predicting the next significant uptrend could arrive in 2026. He argued that halvings matter less over time and that macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates, are playing a growing role in Bitcoin’s performance.
The Road Ahead
Whether Bitcoin sticks to its historic halving cycle or shifts into a new market structure remains a hot debate. For now, Glassnode’s data suggests the four-year rhythm may still be relevant, with October potentially marking a critical point for Bitcoin price action.
