Bitcoin is heading into the end of June and the Q2 2026 close under heavy pressure, with traders watching whether a bullish RSI divergence can help BTC avoid a deeper breakdown below $60,000.
The final days of June are shaping up to be important for the Bitcoin price. After weeks of downside pressure, BTC is struggling around the $60,000 support zone, while technical analysts point to a possible bullish signal forming on the relative strength index, also known as RSI.
For Bitcoin bulls, the question is simple: can RSI divergence help spark a recovery, or is the market preparing for another leg lower?
Bitcoin RSI Divergence Gives Bulls a Reason to Watch
A key Bitcoin technical indicator is starting to attract attention again.
According to TradingView data cited in the original analysis, Bitcoin is showing bullish RSI divergences across multiple time frames. This means BTC price has been making lower lows while RSI is showing signs of strength, a setup that traders often watch for potential trend reversals.
Bitcoin whale Gerla, owner of the Gerla trading group, said that BTC is printing a bullish RSI divergence while a potential double bottom forms on the four-hour chart.
This has increased interest across the trading community because previous RSI divergences have appeared near important Bitcoin market turning points.
Pseudonymous trader Heisenberg noted that earlier oversold RSI divergences in 2026 helped form bottoms, while more recent Bitcoin drops did not show the same structure — until now.
That makes the current setup notable. While RSI divergence does not guarantee a reversal, it can signal that bearish momentum is weakening.
Why $60,000 Is Now the Key Bitcoin Price Level
The biggest level for traders remains clear: $60,000.
Bitcoin started the week with a modest bounce after closing the previous week below $59,500, its first weekly close under that level since September 2024. However, $60,000 is now acting more like resistance, with buyers still struggling to build strong momentum.
Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin’s start to the week was not bad, but warned that bulls need to show more strength.
He pointed to $61,000 as a key breakout level, adding that the bullish divergence should not be ignored.
The coming monthly and quarterly closes could also carry extra weight. Trader Killa noted that Bitcoin is approaching another important pivot point after more than 18 months of major directional shifts forming around the start of each month.
Bitcoin’s June Drop Is the Worst Since 2022
June has been painful for Bitcoin holders.
Data from CoinGlass shows that BTC/USD is down nearly 19% in June, making it Bitcoin’s worst monthly performance since the 2022 bear market and its sharpest monthly loss so far in 2026.
That has brought back comparisons with the previous bear market.
Commentator Exitpump compared the current $60,000 level to Bitcoin’s $30,000 support zone in 2022. Back then, BTC spent months interacting with the $30,000 area before finally losing it as support and later forming its bear-market low.
The message for traders is that major support and resistance levels rarely break immediately. They often require repeated tests before the market decides on a larger direction.
To the upside, Exitpump said a return to $86,000 would be needed before a stronger bull market structure could come back into focus.
US Macro Data Could Influence Crypto Markets This Week
The final week of Q2 is also important for macro markets.
Traders are watching several US economic data releases, including the latest Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, or PMI, from the Institute for Supply Management.
The PMI report could matter for crypto because stronger or weaker economic data can influence expectations around risk assets, interest rates, and liquidity.
Labor market data is another major focus. Markets will react to employment figures, including the June nonfarm payrolls report, which could shape broader investor sentiment.
Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter described the week as a “short but busy” one, with investors also watching geopolitical developments linked to the US and Iran peace agreement.
The end of Q2 also arrives just before earnings season, adding another layer of uncertainty for equities and risk assets.
Bitcoin and Stocks: Correlation Remains Mixed
Bitcoin has shown mixed correlation with US stocks in recent months.
Some traders continue to compare BTC performance with the S&P 500, especially as July historically tends to be strong for equities. Mosaic Asset Company noted that July has historically been one of the best months for the S&P 500 based on data going back nearly 100 years.
However, a stock market rebound does not guarantee a Bitcoin rebound.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin’s relative performance against the S&P 500 is back near important levels seen during previous market stress events. If BTC continues to weaken against stocks, the next major support area could be much lower, closer to levels seen before the late-2023 spot ETF rally.
July Seasonality May Offer Bitcoin Some Relief
History may offer Bitcoin bulls one reason for cautious optimism.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin often sees July performance move in the opposite direction of June. In simple terms, when June closes red, July has often delivered a rebound.
If that pattern repeats, Bitcoin could see some relief after a difficult June. However, Rekt Capital also warned that August could later cancel out July’s upside if the broader bearish trend continues.
CoinGlass historical data supports the idea that June and July often move differently for BTC, with only a few exceptions since 2013.
So far, Bitcoin’s June loss of more than 18% makes this one of the weakest months for BTC since the 2022 bear market.
Onchain Data Shows Bitcoin’s First Bottoming Flag
While traders remain divided on whether Bitcoin has already found its bear-market bottom, onchain data is starting to show early signs of a deeper market reset.
CryptoQuant contributor I. Moreno pointed to the UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio Model, an onchain indicator that compares Bitcoin UTXO blocks in profit versus those in loss.
In simple terms, the indicator measures how broad the market’s profit base is beneath the current price.
When the ratio is high, many Bitcoin holders still sit on unrealized gains. That can increase the risk of further distribution. When the ratio falls toward the lower range, profitability becomes more compressed, losses spread across the market, and Bitcoin enters a more advanced reset phase.
The ratio currently stands at 5.9, its lowest level since 2022 and one of the lowest readings on record.
Moreno called this Bitcoin’s first bottoming flag of the current bear market.
What This Means for Bitcoin Traders
Bitcoin is entering a crucial period.
The market is dealing with a weak June close, pressure around $60,000, mixed macro signals, and uncertainty around whether the current RSI divergence can turn into a stronger rebound.
For bulls, the most important short-term signals are:
A clear reclaim of $60,000
A stronger move above $61,000
Confirmation that RSI divergence is leading to real price momentum
Improved market sentiment from macro data and July seasonality
For bears, the risk remains that $60,000 becomes stronger resistance and Bitcoin repeats the slow support-loss structure seen around $30,000 in 2022.
The key takeaway is that Bitcoin is showing early signs of internal market clean-up, but the bearish phase may still need more time before a durable bottom is confirmed.
