Solana is approaching a key moment as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) prepares to rule on multiple spot Solana ETF applications. However, the blockchain’s on-chain activity tells a different story — one of cooling momentum and shifting sentiment.
Solana Transactions Plummet 50% Since July Peak
According to CryptoQuant data, Solana’s daily transactions have dropped nearly 50% from their July 2025 peak of 125 million to around 64 million today. This sharp decline signals waning retail engagement and possible capital rotation into other blockchain networks.
“Solana’s drop suggests a rebalancing away from hype volume,” said Shivam Thakral, CEO of BuyUcoin. He pointed to capital migration toward competitors like BNB Chain and reduced retail activity as key factors.
Thakral added that even minor validator performance issues or user experience frictions can accelerate the decline, describing it as “part normalization, part competitive pressure, and part sentiment shift.”
ETF Deadline Nears as Analysts Expect Limited Price Reaction
The SEC’s final deadline to rule on spot Solana ETF filings from issuers such as VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton falls on Friday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas.
Despite the anticipation, analysts suggest Solana’s price is unlikely to see a major breakout, as it will likely follow Bitcoin’s broader trend.
“Solana is unlikely to break out solo,” Thakral noted. “It’s far more likely to tag along with Bitcoin’s direction.”
ETF Confidence Grows With Bitwise’s Aggressive Fee Strategy
ETF expert Eric Balchunas stated earlier that Solana ETF approval is virtually confirmed, following the SEC’s move in September to approve generic listing standards. This change effectively simplified the ETF approval process, making the individual 19b-4 filings less significant.
Bitwise reinforced this optimism by amending its filing this week, introducing a low 0.20% management fee—one of the most competitive in the market.
“Bitwise not playing around,” Balchunas commented on X (formerly Twitter). “Low fees have a near-perfect record of attracting investors, so it’s a good sign for inflow potential.”
What Comes Next for Solana
While ETF approval may provide short-term momentum, analysts caution that sustained bullish movement will depend on broader ETF-driven inflows and network-specific catalysts such as improved scalability, developer activity, or new partnerships.
With daily transactions halved and market attention shifting, Solana’s next move will likely hinge on Bitcoin’s direction and the market’s post-ETF sentiment.
