Bitcoin is entering a critical 100-day window that could define the rest of its bull market. Analysts say the cryptocurrency’s next major move is coming soon as the Bollinger Bands—a key volatility indicator—reach record-tight levels, signaling a potential breakout.
Bitcoin’s 100-Day Countdown
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $122,213, but technical analysts believe the next three months could make or break the ongoing bull run. According to trader Tony “The Bull” Severino, Bitcoin’s volatility squeeze has reached a point where a breakout is imminent.
“BTCUSD has failed to break out above the upper band with strength,” Severino noted on X. “According to past local consolidation ranges, it could take as long as 100+ days to get a valid breakout—or breakdown, if BTC dumps instead.”
The analysis is based on historical Bollinger Band behavior during previous bull cycles, where major price movements typically followed within 90 to 100 days of extreme tightness.
Record Bollinger Band Tightness
The Bollinger Bands indicator, which measures price volatility, has contracted to its tightest levels on the weekly timeframe. This setup often precedes sharp market moves in either direction.
A decisive breakout above or below the outer bands could set the tone for Bitcoin’s next phase. Severino warned, however, that “fakeouts” are possible, where prices briefly move beyond a band before reversing.
“Expanding from a Squeeze setup like this can lead to head fakes,” he wrote, pointing to Bitcoin’s recent all-time high near $126,000. “We might see another dip before a real move higher.”
The Next “Price Discovery Uptrend”?
While some traders are cautious, others see potential for Bitcoin to enter a new “price discovery uptrend.”
Market analyst Rekt Capital recently said that BTC’s current cycle is likely far from over, arguing that the cryptocurrency’s bull markets are becoming longer over time. “It’s unlikely Bitcoin has already peaked in its Bull Market because that would make this cycle one of the shortest ever,” Rekt Capital said when BTC was trading near $124,500.
This week, he added that the market could be entering a fresh uptrend phase, suggesting renewed momentum after months of sideways movement.
Parabolic Rally or Bull Market Top?
Severino believes the upcoming breakout will determine whether Bitcoin goes parabolic—potentially revisiting its explosive growth phases—or ends its current three-year bull run.
“This setup has the potential to send Bitcoin parabolic or put an end to the bull rally altogether,” he said.
With volatility compression, historical patterns, and cycle timing all converging, Bitcoin traders are watching the charts closely. Whether BTC breaks to the upside or downside, the next 100 days could mark a defining moment in the cryptocurrency’s 2025 trajectory.
