Polymarket Traders Predict High Chance of Trump Winning 2024 Election
With the U.S. presidential election just ten months away, traders on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, are showing strong confidence in former President Donald Trump’s return to power. As of the latest data, shares betting on Trump’s victory in the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market are trading at 55 cents, suggesting a 55% probability of him winning the election. Trump has already secured victories in the first two Republican Party primaries.
The probability for current President Joe Biden to retain his position is 38%, according to the traders on Polymarket. Nikki Haley, an Indian-American Republican aspirant, has been given only 1% odds of winning. There’s also a 2% chance assigned to Michelle Obama potentially outperforming other candidates amid speculation that the former U.S. First Lady might enter the presidential race.
Since its introduction in 2020, Polymarket has emerged as a popular choice for traders betting on various binary events, including political outcomes.
Polymarket’s Presidential Election Winner 2024 betting contract. (Polymarket) (Polymarket)
The Presidential Election Winner 2024 contract has placed over $22 million in bets, with $3.4 million currently committed to the market focusing on Trump’s victory. The contract expires on November 5, and resolution sources for the market will include major news outlets like the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
